CCD   Geography 105 - World Regional Geography

India Enlisting Bhutan to Combat Rebels
14 September 2000

India has enlisted Bhutan's army in the fight against Indian rebels who have set up camp in the southern forests of Bhutan. India is training and equipping some 2,000 soldiers from the Himalayan kingdom to expel guerrillas fighting government rule in India's northeastern states. But the fight won't be easy, and it could destabilize Bhutan.

Bhutan occupies a tenuous position between India and China, two nations that historically have squabbled over their border and have even fought a war over it. China still occupies a section of the Himalayas claimed by India. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, China has focused more on reinforcing its southwestern border by moving troops and constructing military infrastructure. Bhutan is a buffer state, economically dominated by India, but relatively free of military ties to either nation.

India's northeastern states have been ravaged by small-scale war for nearly 50 years; more than 10,000 people have died since 1992. The region is a mosaic of indigenous groups that support a dozen various insurgent groups. The United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) are two of the larger militant groups. Both want to carve independent homelands out of the state of Assam, and both maintain bases across borders in Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan.

Much to India's delight, Myanmar's military has expelled most of the militants that were in its territory. But the rebels have found refuge in as many as 30 camps in Bhutan, fewer than 30 miles from population centers in Assam.

Now India has convinced Bhutan to try to dislodge the militants. This was not difficult to do given that 94 percent of Bhutan's exports go to India. Bhutanese forces are already stepping up security in the southern forests and are trying to seal the land routes into India. But the Bhutanese army is ill-prepared, so India is training one-third of Bhutan's 6,000-man army. The Indians are even providing basic equipment such as assault rifles.

The rebels, however, might not be easy to dislodge. Estimates vary, but members of ULFA and NDFB number between 1,600 to 6,000, although it is unclear how many of the militants are stationed in Bhutan. The groups are supported by Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) operatives, and there are rumors out of India that Chinese intelligence services also provide arms. The rebels also profit from the drug routes from Southeast Asia to India.

Bhutan may be starting a fight it can't win. A large number of well-equipped, seasoned rebels could prove a challenge to Bhutan's undersized, under-equipped army. Indian training will help, but usually peaceful Bhutan may be about to experience some of the internal strife that has wracked neighboring Assam.

If Bhutan's attempt to expel the militants goes poorly, India will likely respond with higher levels of military assistance - more training, more weapons systems. Such a move would not only help India tackle its insurgency problem but also would tie Bhutan's military closer to India and give India more influence closer to China. If Bhutan finds itself severely threatened, it might ask for intervention by Indian troops. Diplomatically, this would be a nightmare for India because China would denounce the troop movement with all its fury. Strategically, it would be a coup as India's own troops would move closer to the Chinese border.