Security Watch: Africa's Instability Adds to Threats to U.S.
Feb 19, 2003 stratfor.com

Summary
While the world watches with bated breath as the U.S. military expands in the Persian Gulf, many events elsewhere are going almost unnoticed. The U.S. war against al Qaeda and the looming attack on Iraq are exacerbating current instabilities and creating new ones the world over. Even without tensions created by the conflict with Iraq, hot spots in other parts of the world are bound to flare in coming months.

In this second installment of a new series, Stratfor looks at security in Africa, a continent struggling with conflicts, chaos, corruption, gun-running and drug-smuggling, and where large areas -- even countries -- are beyond the rule of law. It also has been the site of at least two simultaneous militant strikes against the United States.

Analysis

Africa is an important -- but often obscure -- player on the international stage. Events there happen mostly below the rest of the world's radar. Racked by civil and border wars, palace and military coups, rebellions and revolutions, Africa seems perpetually in a state of chaos. Most of the governments are weak and incapable of securing their countries' borders and can do little to promote stability.

These factors make Africa an extremely attractive location to conduct illicit operations that elsewhere would be disrupted or stopped by law enforcement or the central governments. In fact, Africa long has served as a Third World battleground for proxy conflicts. For instance, during the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union backed opposing sides in the Angolan civil war. Both used various African nations as way stations and as tools for gathering intelligence and undermining each other. Washington, for example, relied heavily upon strategically located and economically important countries like Nigeria, Libya and Egypt for resources and intelligence on Moscow.

Now the United States is embroiled in a new kind of ideological war, centered in the oil-rich Gulf and in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan, and involving a rogue Saudi millionaire with ties and allies throughout the Muslim world. It also is preparing for a conventional war with a key Arab state in the Gulf and a major oil producer. Anti-terrorism efforts and now the looming Iraq war have diverted attention from most of the rest of the world, especially Africa, except when events directly relate to U.S. security concerns.

Al Qaeda in Africa

The lack of scrutiny, however, creates an operational advantage for extremist groups like al Qaeda that need a rear area of operations. Al Qaeda has been known to operate in several African countries, including Sudan, Kenya and Tanzania. It also has allies in Algeria and Somalia and possibly in Egypt, Morocco and Mauritania.

Al Qaeda's penetration of Africa translates into a security problem for the United States. Areas such as the Horn of Africa, oil-rich West Africa and North Africa are vital to U.S. long-term strategic interests, and this makes them potential targets for al Qaeda strikes. This, in turn, could impact the safety and security of Western expatriates in Africa. In Kenya and Tanzania, more than 200 people -- both Americans and locals -- were killed in the bombings of the U.S. embassies in 1998.

U.S. military forces already are crawling all over the Horn of Africa to try to rout suspected al Qaeda allies and prevent militants who are fleeing Afghanistan and Pakistan from finding sanctuary in failed states like Somalia.

Washington also suspects several groups in eastern Africa of association with al Qaeda, and officials are working with local governments in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya and Tanzania to dismantle the network.

Meanwhile, the United States has increased its interest in West Africa. U.S. energy companies, spurred by the discovery of one massive offshore oil field after another, have been pumping billions of dollars into African governments in exchange for access to the oil. Although a U.S. war with Iraq will divert some of that investment interest toward the Persian Gulf, too much money has been spent in West Africa for it to be forgotten completely.

Indeed, reports suggest that the U.S. European Command is considering establishing a naval base on the Sao Tome and Principe archipelago. Though the U.S. military has denied the reports, the islands are centrally located and would be ideal for a military force interested in protecting offshore assets like oil platforms and production facilities as well as oil tankers and other ships transiting the Gulf of Guinea. Al Qaeda itself is unlikely to launch attacks against specific U.S. assets in the region, but it might try to connect with local dissident groups and rebel leaders, supplying funds and training to locals who target U.S. assets or personnel.

Upcoming general elections in Nigeria also will create a vulnerability that al Qaeda could exploit. It is possible that the group already has established contacts in Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa and a top supplier to the United States.

Elections in Nigeria are extremely divisive and typically shaped by ethnic-geographic splits. The Muslim north appears divided, and whatever the election results, several factions likely will be displeased. Al Qaeda might hope to capitalize on discontent in the north and target Nigeria's oil infrastructure or the U.S. Embassy.

For the United States, the geopolitical stakes are higher in North African countries like Egypt and Morocco. Washington needs cooperation from Rabat and Cairo in order to ensure easy access to the Mediterranean and the Red Sea during a crisis. It also relies on both moderate Arab governments to contain Islamist movements that oppose U.S. interference in the region. Morocco has arrested a number of suspected al Qaeda militants and is cracking down on Islamists in the days before the U.S.-led war against Iraq.

Egypt is even more precariously balanced. There is a large Islamist movement in the Nile state, and several former Egyptian security officers are now known to be members of al Qaeda. Moreover, anti-American sentiment runs deep in Egypt, due to Washington's support for Israel.

Al Qaeda hopes widespread anti-Americanism, nascent dissatisfaction with U.S.-backed regimes and the U.S.-led war against Iraq will help the network grow and will trigger popular unrest throughout the Arab world, including in strategically important states like Egypt and Morocco. Still, al Qaeda's ability to threaten American interests on the continent remains unclear. The simultaneous bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, however, illustrated the network's willingness to strike in Africa.

African Hot Spots

Beyond immediate U.S. interests, there are a hodgepodge of internal power struggles, border wars, and independence and revolutionary movements in Africa.

Given that conflict on the continent has been continuous since many countries gained independence in the 1950s and 1960s -- and even before -- many governments and businesses have learned to work around the chaos.

Even so, the wars in Algeria and Sudan, for instance, pose a threat to world energy supplies, and flare-ups there could affect the energy market worldwide.

In Algeria, the military-backed government has yet to stifle a decade-old Islamist uprising. The government's control over the countryside is limited. The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in the eastern mountains has killed hundreds of soldiers and grows more daring by the month. Security in Algiers itself is tenuous. The government holds its own, thanks to high oil prices and a well-funded military. But should the militants secure an outside sponsor or should oil prices plummet, Algiers could find itself in desperate circumstances.

To the east, the war in Sudan has reached another lull, and following U.S. mediation efforts, the Arab government and the Christian-Animist rebels cut a cease-fire deal. Fighting continues, but that the two sides are talking bodes well for near-term calm.

At the same time, none of the Arab states and especially Egypt wants to see a divided Sudan, and this might lead Cairo to try to sabotage any U.S.-brokered peace agreement. Supporting the U.S. war against Iraq could give Egypt the leverage it needs to get Washington to back off the Sudan peace push. A war in the Gulf also could create a cover for any interested party to try to reshape the situation on the ground, either through a renewed offensive or by targeted assassinations of rebel leaders.

Another conflict set to heat up in the coming months is the nascent civil war in the Central African Republic. Rebels led by former Gen. Francois Bozize have gained control over a large swathe of the country and will push for Bangui next. Paris -- though not openly backing the rebels -- has refused to answer pleas from the government to send peacekeepers. The Patasse administration is hoping to stall an offensive by calling for reconciliation talks and possibly asking Libya for assistance.

Tripoli has backed off -- for the moment -- but likely will send more troops into the mineral-rich country rather than lose it to the Chadian-backed rebels. A change of regime in Bangui will impact security throughout central Africa, since the CAR is a transit point for guns and supplies to rebels in southern Sudan and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, as well as an entry point into southern Chad and eastern Cameroon and the Republic of the Congo.

Power struggles or rebellions in other countries like Zimbabwe, South Africa, Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia and Equatorial Guinea will see important developments in coming months. The death of the aging president of Equatorial Guinea and the succession crisis afterward could immediately endanger oil supplies to the United States.

In Cote d'Ivoire, the government's half-hearted attempts at national reconciliation likely will break down over the next month or two, triggering another round of fighting with rebels and the destruction of the cocoa-producing country's already troubled economy.

Zimbabwe's three-year battle with white farmers -- and the president's maneuvering to stay in power despite a failing economy -- might be nearing an end. Over the past several months, the political advantage has shifted incrementally toward the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and away from embattled President Robert Mugabe. Hints that the Zimbabwean military -- or at least its senior leaders -- now are seeking a means of removing the president suggest that regime change might be on the horizon.

South Africa is trapped in economic stagnation, and the trouble is slowly fracturing the ruling African National Congress. Presidential elections aren't due until the first half of 2004, but rival candidates and their supporters already are beginning to jockey for position.

Meanwhile, a constant stream of illicit traffic transiting from and through the continent also contributes to Africa's chronic instability.

Heroin from Afghanistan, Pakistan and other Asian states is regularly moved into eastern Africa before being slipped into Europe and the United States. Guns are smuggled in ships along Africa's Atlantic Coast and distributed to rebel and militant groups from Zambia to Sudan to Somalia. In the Congo, Sierra Leone and Liberia, to name a few countries, diamond smuggling is a well-organized and well-developed business.

The ability of criminals to conduct business beyond the reach of law enforcement is crucial to their overall profitability, and Africa will continue to remain a key node for transporting illicit materials.

The Consequences of Conflict

As the world watches Washington try to take Baghdad, a range of criminals, rebels and militants will be busy in other parts of the world. These groups will capitalize on the U.S. actions in the Gulf to strengthen their positions elsewhere. Much of this will take place in Africa, where conflicts and competition are part of daily life.