Horn of Africa: A Rivalry of Cooperation
Feb 13, 2003 stratfor.biz

Summary

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could cripple U.S. anti-terrorism and war efforts in the Middle East and Horn of Africa regions. Washington needs the Horn to remain calm, but the two rivals will play off each other in a bid for more benefits from the United States.

Analysis

Tensions flared in the Horn of Africa earlier this week when Eritrea accused Ethiopia of massing troops near the disputed border village of Badme. Maj. Gen. Robert Gordon, commander of U.N. peacekeeping forces along the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, later dismissed the accusation, the U.N. Integrated Regional Information Network reported Feb. 13.

Eritrea's claims demonstrate the potential for a flare-up in conflict in the Horn. And though neither side might be willing to abrogate the December 2000 peace deal, both might try to exploit the U.S. military's need for calm in the Horn of Africa as leverage to garner more attention -- and benefits -- from Washington.

Trouble between Addis Ababa and Asmara could threaten U.S. anti-terrorism efforts in the region and create problems for the U.S. military's war plans in Iraq. The Horn of Africa abuts the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, and it is critical for controlling the strategic Bab al Mandab chokepoint. The United States will pressure both countries to refrain from outright confrontation.

The rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea is potent, and as the U.S. presence in the Horn increases, so too will tensions between the countries. Ethiopia and Eritrea fought an 18-month border war until they inked a peace deal in December 2000. Since then, a U.N. peacekeeping mission has monitored the cease-fire along the border. Both nations continue to sporadically claim aggression by the other, distrust remains high and both have tried to outflank each other by maneuvering in neighboring Sudan.

Another critical issue driving up tensions is the possibility for the establishment of a U.S. naval base in Eritrea at Assab port, directly across the Red Sea from the southern tip of Yemen.

Asmara repeatedly has offered the port to Washington, and in mid-December, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld traveled to the Horn. He visited Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti during the trip, meeting with the heads of state in all three countries. Rumsfeld's visit was a clear signal of the importance Washington places on access to the strategically located Horn. He also was the highest U.S. government official to visit Eritrea since its creation, and his visit there fueled the rumors of Washington seeking another Red Sea port.

Building a U.S. naval base in Assab, however, could aggravate relations with Ethiopia. Addis Ababa has opposed the establishment of such a base because it would preclude any long-term plans by landlocked Ethiopia to seize the port. Eritrea was carved out of Ethiopia in 1993, and the formation of the new state left Addis Ababa without port access.

The U.S. military already is stationed in neighboring Djibouti. Approximately 800 U.S. troops, including Special Forces, are at the French base, Camp Lemonier. They are part of the Combined Joint Task Force: Horn of Africa, headquartered on the USS Mount Whitney. The Mount Whitney is stationed off the coast of Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden, but there has been talk of moving the headquarters ashore, and a logical place is the Eritrean port of Assab. Washington has not admitted to negotiations regarding Assab, but the possibility remains.

Tensions in the Horn are not likely to translate into open conflicts with Washington. Ethiopia, for instance, relies heavily upon U.S. financial and humanitarian aid and will be loathe to risk that funding. At the same time, however, both Asmara and Addis Ababa realize the high stakes of the anti-terrorism war and the U.S. war plans for Iraq, and they understand that there are benefits to be gained from playing an important role in supporting those U.S. initiatives.

Both will therefore try to undercut the other in a scramble for Washington's favor. And this competition is exactly what the U.S. military doesn't need as it conducts operations in the region and relies on local cooperation and intelligence in its war against al Qaeda.

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